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On the 12th of December 2015 following two weeks of intense negotiations, the world’s 195 countries came to a global agreement on action in the face of climate change. One month on from the Paris Agreement everything remains to be done, and the future will tell us whether the words spoken and the commitments made during the COP21 will be followed by actions.

AN HISTORIC AGREEMENT

“The Paris Agreement for the first time brings all nations into a common cause based on their historic, current and future responsibilities.” UN press release from the 14th of December 2015

After the impasse of the Kyoto Protocol and the failure of the Copenhagen Summit, the Paris Agreement can be considered as a genuine success on a number of aspects. It is first and foremost a diplomatic success. The heads of state managed to agree on a single and unique text despite their individual interests and priorities. Up until the last minute, everything could have collapsed merely through the resistance of one state. Now it remains to be seen if it will also be a success for the climate.

THE AGREEMENT IN FIVE POINTS

    • Global warming to remain below 2 degrees, or even 1.5 degrees

Not only does the Paris Agreement reaffirm the need to keep global surface temperature warming below the threshold of 2 degrees, but it also makes a mention of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees. This is the first time an international agreement has set such a goal. While the question remains whether it is realistically achievable, the lower threshold would limit the submersion of island states most vulnerable to temperature increases and the associated rising sea levels.

    • USD 100 billion

The Agreement defines a roadmap to the provision of USD 100 billion by 2020 in both loans and gifts by the developed countries. This annual budget will be allocated primarily to financing greenhouse gas emission reduction projects as well as climate change adaptation measures. The budget will be revised every five years, and it is expected to be gradually raised by the parties to the Agreement in order to meet emerging needs.

    • Obligation of Transparency

At the centre of the Agreement is a UN verification body tasked with monitoring compliance with the commitments made by the countries and to ensure transparency of financing. Every two years, all countries must thus produce a detailed report on their climate policies that will be examined by United Nations experts.

    • Differentiation of Efforts

The text of the Agreement makes reference to the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities’ of the countries in addressing climate change from the 1992 UN Climate Convention in Rio. The Paris Agreement thus insists that efforts must be based on the equity principle. Developing countries do not have to contribute financially due to the inevitable concessions they are making as climate change impacts on their lands and populations.

    • Non-binding

The non-binding nature of the Agreement is a contentious subject. The absence of sanctions can certainly be explained by a desire to avoid another stalemate, as happened during the Kyoto Protocol. In fact, the United States never ratified the Kyoto Protocol on the grounds of its binding nature, and Canada, Russia, Japan and Australia eventually withdrew from the Protocol after having been threatened with sanctions. As a result, the Paris Agreement places emphasis on the voluntary character of each individual country’s fight against climate change.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

The task of the President of the COP21, Laurent Fabius, is far from over. He has highlighted his willingness to consolidate two areas of the Agreement before handing over the Presidency to Morocco in November: the issue of financing and the revision of the national climate commitments made by the countries before the COP21, as they fall short of the targets called for in the Paris Agreement. Current proposed commitments still add up to a warming of 3 degrees. It is therefore crucial that countries ratchet up their efforts as soon as possible.

One of the most important milestones in the near future is the enactment of the Agreement. For this to happen, it must be ratified by a minimum of 55 parties to the UNFCCC by 2020 accounting in total for at least an estimated 55% of total global greenhouse gas emissions. We can only hope that certain countries will not fall at the hurdle of having their commitments challenged at national level. Notably in the United States, the ratification of the Agreement depends on a vote by the Senate, which is deeply divided between Democrats and Republicans.

THE BEGINNING OF A LONG JOUNEY

The Paris Agreement is certainly far from perfect, but it marks a turning point in the history of international climate talks. While everything now depends on the will of nation states to honour their commitments, the COP21 has unquestionably triggered the awakening of an international awareness on the need to act as swiftly as possible to combat climate change.

The COP21 has also been a nice victory for us.The Oceans have finally been heard and they have been taken into account, not least thanks to the concerted efforts put in by the members of the Ocean and Climate Platform. Now we must carry on and make things happen!

Léa Daulan, Environment Editor